Attribution of human Salmonella infections to animal and food sources in Italy (2002-2010): Adaptations of the Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models

Abstract

SUMMARY The Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models were adapted to Italian Salmonella data to attribute human infections caused by the top 30 serotypes between 2002 and 2010 to four putative sources (Gallus gallus, turkeys, pigs, ruminants), at the points of animal reservoir (farm), exposure (food), and both combined. Attribution estimates were thus compared between different models, time periods and sampling points. All models identified pigs as the main source of human salmonellosis in Italy, accounting for 43-60% of infections, followed by G. gallus (18-34%). Attributions to turkeys and ruminants were minor. An increasing temporal trend in attributions to pigs and a decreasing one in those to G. gallus was also observed. Although the outcomes of the two models applied at farm and food levels essentially agree, they can be refined once more information becomes available, providing valuable insights about potential targets along the production chain. © Cambridge University Press 2013.