The effects of disaggregation on forecasting nonstationary time series

Abstract

This paper focuses on the effects of disaggregation on forecast accuracy for nonstationary time series using dynamic factor models. We compare the forecasts obtained directly from the aggregated series based on its univariate model with the aggregation of the forecasts obtained for each component of the aggregate. Within this framework (first obtain the forecasts for the component series and then aggregate the forecasts), we try two different approaches: (i) generate forecasts from the multivariate dynamic factor model and (ii) generate the forecasts from univariate models for each component of the aggregate. In this regard, we provide analytical conditions for the equality of forecasts.The results are applied to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data of several European countries of the euro area and to their aggregated GDP. This will be compared to the prediction obtained directly from modeling and forecasting the aggregate GDP of these European countries. In particular, we would like to check whether long-run relationships between the levels of the components are useful for improving the forecasting accuracy of the aggregate growth rate. We will make forecasts at the country level and then pool them to obtain the forecast of the aggregate. The empirical analysis suggests that forecasts built by aggregating the country-specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregated data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.