A Set Pair Analysis Approach for Dynamic Risk Assessment of Tailings Dam Failure

Abstract

Tailings ponds are a critical and essential facility for mines and play a major role in protecting the environment of the mines and surrounding areas. But tailings ponds also present the potential hazard of mud flow, and the failure of a tailings dam may result in property damage and human casualties. It is therefore imperative to identify and analyze the hazardous and harmful risks present in tailings dams in a timely fashion and evaluate their safety levels accurately. In this paper, the safety of tailings dams is analyzed using a Set Pair Analysis (SPA) method, which combines a safety status assessment with trend analysis. A safety assessment index system is firstly established for safety analysis by searching for and analyzing the existing hidden dangers in the tailings dam. A case study is then conducted using the SPA method to evaluate the safety level of a selected tailings dam in China. It is concluded that the safety status of the tailings dam can be reflected by the status figures, and the development trend of the safety status of the tailings dam can be judged through the trend analysis.