Forecasting the Maturity of Alternate Wind Turbine Technologies Through Patent Analysis

Abstract

The future of energy can't be solely depending on fossil fuel. Fossil fuel availability is limited and the price is volatile. The solution to the future is renewable energy. One of the widest recognized renewable energy is wind. Wind energy is considered clean, zero-carbon emitting energy source, original, diversified and show promising development in the future. This paper explored new technology in wind energy. The new technologies identified were Jet Engine Wind Turbine, Gearless Wind Turbine, Airborne Wind Turbine, Magnus Wind Turbine and LIDAR wind turbine. Those technologies are based on Horizontal Axis principle. Technology forecasting by using bibliometrics analysis, patent analysis, and growth curve were integrated in this paper. The results indicate that jet engine wind turbines are currently in early maturity stage, while gearless wind turbines, LIDAR wind turbines and Magnus wind turbines are at the end of growth curve. Airborne wind turbines are currently in the very end of growth curve and almost move to maturity stage. The findings suggest that all of those wind turbines are expected to be produced started in 2011 or 2012 and implemented widely around 2014-2016.