Assessment of Climate Change Extremes Over the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region Using the Hadley Centre PRECIS Regional Climate Model

Abstract

Regional-scale climate projections based on the Hadley Centre PRECIS climate model have been used to assess future changes of rainfall and temperature extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region (EMME). Model output was evaluated by comparison with stations located in the western part of the study region. The area of interest is particularly vulnerable to extreme climate events such as droughts and heat waves. Extreme climate indices were calculated for three future 30-year time slices and compared to the reference period (1961–1990). Overall, model projections for the different future time periods reveal a continual and gradual future warming trend while conditions characterised as exceptional hot summers during the control period are found to become “typical” by the end of the twenty-first century. In agreement with previous studies, our results point to a drying tendency in the study domain, and indicate a decline in annual precipitation by 5–30% by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the reference period. The model projects larger precipitation reductions in the northern EMME, while the number of days with heavy precipitation is expected to decrease in the high-elevation areas of the region.