Effects of Changes in Extreme Climate Events on Key Sectors in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Adaptation Options

Abstract

Changes in the extreme climate indices during the 1961–2016 periods across Bosnia and Herzegovina and theirs effects on key sectors are examined. Daily data on minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation from four meteorological stations located in different parts of the territory were used for calculation in the RClimDex (1.0) software a set of 27 temperature and precipitation indices defined by the ETCCDI. The climate change assessment covered trend analysis and analysis of changes in parameters of the extreme value theory distributions (location, shape and scale). Both Tmax and Tmin displayed significant upward trends (0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade, respectively). Significant upward tendency was determined for warm temperature indices, whereas cold ones displayed downward trends. The highest trend values (>5 days per decade) were obtained for warm indices: TN90p, TX90p, WSDI, SU25 and SU30. Further, the results indicate that the distributions of both maximum and minimum temperatures shifted towards higher values in the latter period. Consistent with the warming trend, warm indices also shifted towards higher values, whereas the opposite was determined for cold ones. Precipitation indices displayed trends mixed in sign, but insignificant. Moreover, no significant changes in their distributions were determined. However, the upward trends in RX1day, RX5day, R95p and R99p indicate changes towards more intense precipitation. Effects of the observed changes on key sectors in Bosnia and Herzegovina: agriculture, forestry, energetic (hydropower) and tourism were then examined. Climate change has strongly affected yields, fire frequency, energy production and consumption, suitability of destinations for tourism development, etc. Adaptation options were discussed in order to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience of these very important sectors for sustainable development of Bosnia and Herzegovina.