Reduction of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability after the mid-1980s and possible cause

Abstract

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) consists of subsystems such as the Siberian high, Aleutian low, East Asian trough, low-level northerly wind and high-level East Asian jet stream. It is revealed that the interannual variation of the EAWM-related atmospheric circulation has exhibited an obvious weakening since the mid-1980s. During 1956-1980, significant negative correlations between the EAWM and sea surface temperature are observed in the oceans along the east coast of East Asia, accompanied by significant positive correlations in the western Warm Pool. However, the significant interannual relationship in the previous period is found to have been disrupted during 1986-2010. Further analysis reveals that the Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1980s tends to suppress the interannual variability of the EAWM. In addition, it was found that the large-scale warming after the mid-1980s is favorable to reduce the land-sea thermal contrast variability on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales. © 2012 The Author(s).