Dynamic simulation model of electricity energy demand and power plant capacity planning in Madura

Abstract

As a country that has many islands, Indonesia faces a challenge of inequality electrification ratio. The big islands with dense population such as Java and Sumatra could build large electricity generation plants and distribute electricity with economies scale. On the other hand, it is not economical to build large power plants on small and isolated islands; because of the investment cost per number of population is still very high. Therefore, a strategy to build an independent power plant in small island such as Madura is still a challenge for the government. In addition, to build a power plant in Madura, requires a comprehensive analysis of electricity energy needs in the future and capacity planning to fulfill the demand. Madura has the potential to develop its own power plant. However, Madura still relies on supplies from the island of Java. Therefore, in this research, we use system dynamics as a framework to develop a simulation model to project the future demand and power plant capacity planning based on consideration that system dynamics can conduct the demand projection and capacity planning as well as developing scenarios to fulfill demand in 25 years.