New approach to evaluate the equivalent circulating density (ECD) using artificial intelligence techniques

Abstract

The equivalent circulation density (ECD) is a very important parameter in drilling high-pressure high-temperature and deepwater wells. ECD is a key parameter during drilling through formations where the margin between the pore pressure and the fracture pressure (FP) is narrow. In these critical formations, the ECD is used to control the formation pressure and prevent kicks. Recent approaches in oilfields to determine ECD depend mainly on using expensive downhole sensors for providing real-time values of ECD. Most of these tools have operational limitations such as high pressure and high temperature which may prevent using these tools in downhole conditions. The objective of this paper is to develop a new approach for predicting ECD using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques from surface drilling parameters [mud weight, drill pipe pressure, and rate of penetration (ROP)]. 2376 data points were used to develop the AI models. The data were collected during the drilling of an 8.5″ vertical hole section. Two AI models were used to estimate the ECD: artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). An empirical correlation for ECD was derived from the optimized ANN model by extracting the weights and biases. The developed ANN and ANFIS models were able to calculate ECD with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.99 and average absolute percentage error of 0.22% for ANN and ANFIS models, respectively. The developed empirical correlation for the ANN model can be used during well design to choose a correct mud weight to safely drill the well based on the expected drilling parameters. It will also minimize the drilling problems related to ECD such as losses or gains especially in critical situations where the margin between the pore and fracture pressure is very narrow. In addition, using this technique will save cost and time by reducing the need for expensive, complicated downhole tools.