Pre-treatment nomogram for biochemical control after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy for clinically localised prostate cancer

Abstract

Phase III studies have demonstrated the clinical benefit of adding neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation to radical radiotherapy for clinically localised prostate cancer. We have developed a nomogram to describe the probability of PSA control for patients treated in this way. Five hundred and seventeen men with clinically localised prostate cancer were treated with 3-6 months of neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy (64 Gy in 32#) between 1988 and 1998. Median presenting PSA was 20 ng ml-1, and 56% of patients had T3/4 disease. Multivariate analysis of pre-treatment factors was performed, and a nomogram developed to describe PSA-failure-free survival probability. At a median follow-up of 44 months, 233 men had developed PSA failure. Presenting PSA, histological grade and clinical T stage were all highly predictive of PSA failure on multivariate analysis. The nomogram score for an individual patient is given by the summation of PSA (< 10=0, 10-19=16, 20-49=44, ≥50=100), grade (Gleason 2-4=0, 5-7=44, 8-10=81) and T stage (T1/2=0, T3/4=35). For a nomogram score of 0, 50, 100 and 150 points the 2 year PSA control rate was 93, 87, 75 and 54%, and the 5 year PSA control rate was 82, 67, 44 and 18%. These results are comparable to those using surgery or higher doses of radical radiotherapy alone. The nomogram illustrates the results of multivariate analysis in a visually-striking way, and facilitates comparisons with other treatment methods. © 2002 Cancer Research UK.