Wind Energy Scenarios for the Simulation of the German Power System Until 2050: The Effect of Social and Ecological Factors

Abstract

Models of future energy systems and the development of underlying energy scenarios contribute to an answer on the question how a transformation of the energy system can be implemented. Although energy system modelling has a wide influence, the field lacks the consideration of local ecological and societal concerns, such as acceptance issues. In this paper, a methodology is developed to integrate social and ecological aspects concerning wind energy into the distribution of future wind energy capacities in Germany. Based on the calculated potential siting area (white area), an algorithm was developed to site different types of wind energy plants in the available area. Two wind expansion scenarios have been developed: one distributing future wind capacities according to technical and economic conditions (economic scenario), and the other based on the regional burden level resulting from wind energy plants (balanced scenario). The development of the burden level as a socio-ecological factor enabled the siting of wind turbines according to an equal burden level in all German districts (Landkreise). It was shown, that this equal distribution led to a shift of capacities from the north-west to the south-east compared to the economic approach.