Examining Links between Climate Change and Landslide Activity Using GCMS

Abstract

Climate is an important forcing parameter for landslide activity and hence of strong geomorphological interest, especially precipitation and temperature as inputs into the landslide system. Since climate change is widely accepted, its regional impacts are of major research interest. In fact it is not obviously clear which regions will be affected, in which manner and how the local environments will react to these changes. Climate scenarios can display probable outcomes and boundary conditions for linked environmental systems. In this study GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs are downscaled, with an empirical-statistical method applied to two locations. We present an activity scenario of a mudslide in the Dolomites and scenarios of landslide events calculated with different landslide models for the region of Wellington, New Zealand. Scenario results of the Alvera mudslide (Italy) show a significant activity decrease due to increasing winter temperature and reduced snow storage while precipitation changes do not show a clear trend. The projections for Wellington indicate fewer events of high landslide probability in the hemispherical winter due to decreased precipitation.