Towards predictive modeling of sorghum biomass yields using fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation derived from sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised machine learning techniques

Abstract

Sorghum crop is grown under tropical and temperate latitudes for several purposes including production of health promoting food from the kernel and forage and biofuels from aboveground biomass. One of the concerns of policy-makers and sorghum growers is to cost-effectively predict biomass yields early during the cropping season to improve biomass and biofuel management. The objective of this study was to investigate if Sentinel-2 satellite images could be used to predict within-season biomass sorghum yields in the Mediterranean region. Thirteen machine learning algorithms were tested on fortnightly Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B estimates of the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) in combination with in situ aboveground biomass yields from demonstrative fields in Italy. A gradient boosting algorithm implementing the xgbtree method was the best predictive model as it was satisfactorily implemented anywhere from May to July. The best prediction time was the month of May followed by May–June and May–July. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first time Sentinel-2-derived fAPAR is used in sorghum biomass predictive modeling. The results from this study will help farmers improve their sorghum biomass business operations and policy-makers and extension services improve energy planning and avoid energy-related crises.