Climate-related forest fire risk

Abstract

An increase in the risk of forest fires in Central Europe is seen as a likely consequence of global warming. Therefore, timely planning of measures to adapt is necessary and requires the evaluation of specific hazards in affected regions. Knowledge about potential regional effects of climate change on the risk of forest fires is required to protect the forested regions in the Upper Danube basin. The forest fire index of Baumgartner, which is based on the forest fire statistics from Bavaria, was implemented in a forest fire module within DANUBIA. The future risk of forest fire was assessed in this study under the conditions of the Remo regional climate trend and the Baseline climate variant. The potential future development of the hydroclimatic conditions during March to September was evaluated using temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and the climatic water balance. The model results indicate a significant increase in the forest fire risks within the Upper Danube basin as a consequence of climate warming. Under the assumbtions of the Remo regional climate trend and the Baseline climate variant, the number of days with “high”� and “exceptionally high”� forest fire risk more than doubled in the long-term average for the period from 2011 to 2060. Very dry years with extreme fire hazards may become more common. Such hazards were never reached in the past. For the Upper Danube area, an increase in days with significant forest fire risk may be expected especially for the summer months.