Modeling and control of Mongolian forest utilization: Impact of illegal logging

Abstract

Depletion and deforestation of forest resources are mainly due to industrialization, population, pollution, forest fire, improper commercial logging, and illegal logging in the world. In this paper, we consider two dynamic models. A mathematical Model 1 is proposed considering the forest biomass density (Formula presented.), the density of wood-based industries (Formula presented.) with unknown parameter (Formula presented.). Model 2 is an extension of Model 1 with the density of illegal logging (Formula presented.) with unknown parameter (Formula presented.). It is assumed that the density of forest biomass grows logistically in the absence of wood-based industries and illegal logging. In the proposed models, the controlling parameters (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) are crucial parameters for the local stable conditions of the equilibrium points and system control. We also show in this paper that it is possible to control illegal logging by increasing the level of logging by selecting system parameters efficiently and effectively. Recommendations for Resource Managers Depletion and deforestation of Mongolian forest resource are mainly due to forest fire, illegal logging. We consider mathematical models of forest depletion due to forest operation and illegal logging. Mongolian forest's current situation is that the rate of illegal logging is higher than the wood-based industries. We show that this situation can be changed by changing the parameters. Based on the mathematical modeling and statistical analysis, we define the upper bound of the rate of resources of the wood-based industries. We also presented that it is possible to control the parameters efficiently. The result suggests that to approximate the limit of wood utilized for the nationwide supply from the government it is necessary to increase the current amount of forest utility considering the actual forest resources and demands.