Some Thoughts About the Bio-economy as Intelligently Navigated Complex Adaptive Systems

Abstract

Observations of major curves for greenhouse gas emissions, energy usage, world population, obesity (and health related diseases), national deficits, etc. are showing exponential growth. This is based on current economic forces favouring upscaling, higher throughputs and homogenization of mass production processes for food, (bio-)materials, molecules, energy, but also for services like tourism. On the other hand, biology—especially ecology—and sociology demonstrate that complex, viable ecosystems require (bio- and cultural-)diversity, differentiation and dynamic equilibria between species. Concomitant patterns are sinusoidal allowing dynamics and life at the edge of order and chaos both locally and globally. Consequently, the ‘bio-economy’ faces a paradox. First thoughts about a conceptual approach for the bio-economy are presented that relate the economic evolving patterns with ecological dynamic equilibria. It is based on an iterative process of defining and monitoring images of a viable planet, exploiting complex adaptive systems (CAS) with continuously adapted rules and interventions. The emerging properties of the system fuel innovations. Those are all steered collectively by a Bio-economy Council such that these are disruptive in nature and cross-sector-oriented in order to re-direct the exponential curves towards sinusoidal patterns; this approach is introduced as intelligently navigated complex adaptive systems (INCAS).