Fertility Intentions in Canada: Change or No Change?

Abstract

This paper describes trends in fertility intentions in Canada based on an analysis of data from four national household surveys -- General Social Surveys in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2006. The study finds that the fertility intentions of Canadian women have been relatively stable for the past 16 years, moving within a narrow range of 2.11 to 2.29 children. Modest decreases due to changes in population composition – and not changes in the relationship between various explanatory variables and intended fertility – have largely been responsible for the modest overall decrease of 0.08 children in intended fertility between 1990 and 2006.