Quantitative deliberation model and the method of consensus building

Abstract

Deliberation is an effective method to solve complex problems. Unlike the persuasion and negotiation, deliberation is necessary to consider uncertainty information representation and processing. This paper proposes a quantitative deliberation model (QuDM) based on IBIS. Firstly, the IBIS model is simplified, without considering the specialization and generalization of the issue in the model, and the argument is divided into two parts: the premise and the conclusion. Premise and conclusion are all called statement. Then the uncertainty of argument’s premise and the intensity of argument are expressed by certainty-factors. In order to determine the certainty-factors of positions, a consensus building method is proposed, and the credibility values of all statements are calculated by a recursive algorithm. Finally, an example is used to verify the validity and rationality of the proposed method.