Future expansion, seasonal lengthening and intensification of fire activity under climate change in southeastern France

Abstract

Background: An increase in fire weather is expected in a warming climate, but its translation to fire activity (fire numbers and sizes) remains largely unknown. Additionally, disentangling the extent to which geographic and seasonal extensions as well as intensification contribute to future fire activity remain largely unknown. Aims: We aimed to assess the impact of future climate change on fire activity in southeastern France and estimate changes in spatial and seasonal distributions. Methods: We projected future fire activities using a Bayesian modelling framework combined with ensemble climate simulations. Changes in numbers of escaped fires (>1 ha), large fires (>100 ha) and burned area were studied for different emission scenarios or degrees of global warming. Key results: Fire activity could increase by up to +180% for +4°C of global warming, with large expansions of fire-prone regions and long seasonal lengthenings. Overall, changes will be dominated by intensification within the historical fire niche, representing two-thirds of additional future fire activity, half of this occurring during the high fire season. Conclusions: This study confirms that major changes in fire niches would be expected in Euro-Mediterranean regions. Implications: Long-term strategic policies for adapting prevention and suppression resources and ecosystems are needed to account for such changes.