Conflicts and security risks of climate change in the mediterranean region

Abstract

Global warming poses a significant challenge for the Mediterranean region (Southern Europe, North Africa and Middle East). The assessment starts from a description of the physical effects of climate change, including variations in temperature, precipitation, weather extremes and sea-level, that affect soil erosion, desertification, river flows, coastal zones, rural and urban areas. The vulnerability of the region is analysed in various dimensions, including water, food, migration and energy. Climate hotspots are discussed which are particularly vulnerable, including North Africa and the Nile River basin. The potential consequences of these developments for population, economy and societal stability as well as human security and violent conflict in the region are considered. Finally, we investigate policy responses and institutional frameworks for climate adaptation, conflict resolution and cooperation, with a particular focus on renewable energy collaboration across the Mediterranean region.