Food (In)security and its drivers: insights from trends and opportunities in rural Mozambique

Abstract

We used multiple rounds of nationally representative agricultural survey data to analyze the trends and drivers of food insecurity in rural Mozambique. Reduced-form Probit models were estimated to explain the observed trends as a function of underlying drivers and factors related to agricultural policy interventions. Despite rapid macroeconomic growth, food insecurity in the rural areas had increased from 42.9 % in 2002 to 47.8 % in 2008. Significant inequalities were also observed in the distribution of food insecurity with a substantial disadvantage to the bottom quintile households and rural households located in the Northern provinces. Limited progress on several drivers of agricultural production and food access as well as geographic disparities appear to explain a significant part of the food insecurity trends and distribution. Whether the indicator was use of improved farm inputs and technology, receipt of agricultural extension services, farm production, or cash income, progress did not occur. This implies that to achieve broad-based food security in rural Mozambique, interventions may need to focus on addressing these drivers to increase agricultural productivity while enhancing resilience to price and weather shocks. Interventions must also be spatially targeted and tailored to each segment of the population.