The scope and specificity of economic relations between the EU and the United Kingdom in brexit case

Abstract

The scientific research problem was formulated: how to explain controversial UK position regarding the membership in the EU? The aim of the study is to prognosticate the future of economic international relations between the EU and the UK in Brexit case. The tasks of the study are to systemise the dynamics of the EU and the United Kingdom economic relations in the perspective of history; to predict possible EU-UK relations scenarios after the Brexit; as well as to investigate the opinion of experts regarding the research object. The research methods used: literature analysis, focusing on primary sources but also including secondary sources; survey of experts using structured questionnaires with closed questions. The design of the study is formed in chronological order. It includes a historical analysis of the UK’s road to the European Communities, as well as the dynamics of the UK’s membership in the EU. The study also includes analysis of secondary sources to identify the most conceivable Brexit strategy, and then analysing the possible impacts of the most probable scenarios, which are based on that strategy. The key results address a few propositions. To begin with, although British were among the conceptualists of European integration, it took almost 20 years when the UK finally became a member of the developing EU. Those two decades had negative economic implications for British economy as it missed out opportunities provided by the common market. The eventual UK membership boosted most of the numbers concerning the British economy, however, disagreements with the EU still existed, particularly through issues of EU Budget contributions and immigration. Moreover, the “hard” Brexit is understood as the most probable Brexit strategy. In this case, the future EU-UK relation scenarios range is very limited. It includes a presumable Free Trade Agreement or bilateral trade based on World Trade Organization rules. We conclude that neither of those two solutions would ensure the UK trade with EU without tariffs or quantitative restrictions.