Role of statistics in the validation of general circulation models

Abstract

A compelling case is made for assessing the performance of GCMs in terms of their ability to reproduce climate variability, not just average conditions. Unsatisfactory aspects of current statistical practice are pointed out, with the problem of multiple comparisons illustrated by an example. Indicative of ways in which existing techniques could be used more appropriately in the validation of GCM output, an example that involves a multiple confidence interval is presented. -from Author