Using participatory scenario simulation to plan for conservation under climate change in the greater everglades landscape

Abstract

Because changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species, it poses a substantial challenge to conventional conservation planning approaches which rely on the establishment of fixed protected areas. Over the next decades, climate change will also cause changes in human settlement patterns and on demands for various ecosystem services. New conservation methods are needed to deal with these complex phenomena. We believe that participatory spatial simulation approaches have much to offer under such circumstances, since they address both institutional and technical planning needs. From an institutional point of view, such exercises engage relevant stakeholders across various agencies and administrative jurisdictions. From a technical point of view, the simulations performed provide actionable information, since they help to prioritize potential conservation actions and generate landscape-scale strategies. This chapter presents a case study applying such an approach to the challenges of conservation planning for the Greater Florida Everglades.