Individual-based modelling of hydropeaking effects on brown trout and Atlantic salmon in a regulated river

Abstract

We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to understand the effects of hydropeaking on growth, survival and distribution of age 0+ to 1+ juveniles for high-conservation value populations of native brown trout (Salmo trutta) and Atlantic salmon (S. salar) in river Gullspång, Sweden. We parameterized and applied inSTREAM (7.2-SD) and calibrated the model by comparing predicted versus observed growth under the current hydropeaking regime (n=>1,200 model fish for 365 days). Our objective was to model growth, survival and distribution under flow scenarios with and without hydropeaking. We observed that hydropeaking generally resulted in modest (~10%) negative effects on growth and survival of both species. Survival was more affected than was growth, smaller fish more affected than larger fish. On-peak (high) hydropeaking flows resulted in less profitable feeding conditions (less growth) and higher predation (lower survival). Thus, inSTREAM 7.2-SD appears to capture ecologically-relevant behavioral patterns under hydropeaking, for example, habitat selection, in response to rapid flow changes. Understanding such patterns for large rivers via manipulative field studies, even if possible, would be time-consuming and costly. Our study demonstrates the potential of IBMs as powerful tools for testing research questions and assessing and prioritizing alternative management strategies in regulated rivers.