Climate change in the Western Balkans and EU Green Deal: status, mitigation and challenges

Abstract

Background: The European Commission (EC), based on the European Green Deal (2019) and the Recovery plan for Europe (2021), envisages investing 30% of the budget in climate-related programs, projects, and initiatives, which clearly shows Europe's commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral region by 2050. Activities are also planned for countries that are not members of the European Union (EU), which require complex changes in the field of legislation, strategic planning, implementation, and monitoring. To successfully plan short-term and long-term activities on these grounds, it is necessary to have a realistic picture of the state of climate change in each country—as they spill over into the entire region of Europe. The main objective of this paper is to answer the following questions: (i) is climate change observed in Western Balkans? (ii) how are certain sectors vulnerable to climate change in Western Balkans? (iii) what are the climate change adaptation strategies in the six countries of the Western Balkans? The answers to these questions can help in planning activities and initial alignment of Western Balkan countries with the EU plan to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Main body: The main results of the research show that in all countries of the region, the average annual temperature increased by 1.2 °C compared to 1970, with stabilization and the beginning of the decline which can be expected around 2040. The main reasons for climate change in the region are: industry, energy, and heating sector based on coal exploitation, low energy efficiency, etc. Conclusions: It can be concluded that Croatia as a member of the EU has adopted, and other five Western Balkans countries are in the process of adopting the necessary regulations and strategies towards climate change mitigation, but the implementation of specific activities is at a low level. The reason for this most often lies in the insufficient commitment of decision-makers to make significant changes in the field of climate change transition (lower level of economic development, lack of investment, and preservation of social peace). Finally, this paper provides an overview of climate change by country, scenario analysis, and policy recommendations.