How climate change affects the building energy consumptions due to cooling, heating, and electricity demands of Italian residential sector

Abstract

Climate change affects the buildings’ performance, significantly influencing energy consumption, as well as the indoor thermal comfort. As a consequence, the growing outdoor environmental temperatures entail a slight reduction in heating consumption and an increase in cooling consumption, with different overall effects depending on the latitudes. This document focuses attention on the Italian residential sector, considering the current and reduced meteorological data, in anticipation of future climate scenarios. According to a sample of 419 buildings, referring to the climatic conditions of Milan, Florence, Rome, and Naples, the heating and cooling needs are calculated by a simplified dynamic model, in current and future conditions. The effects of the simplest climate adaptation measure, represented by the introduction of new air conditioners, have been also evaluated. The simulations results show an important reduction in complex energy consumption (Milan −6%, Florence −22%, Rome −25%, Naples −30%), due to the greater incidence of heating demand in the Italian context. However, the increase in air conditioning electrical consumption over the hot season (Milan +11%, Florence +20%, Rome +19%, Naples +16%) can play a critical role for the electrical system; for that reason, the introduction of photovoltaic arrays as a compensatory measure have been analysed.