Incorporating biotic interactions reveals potential climate tolerance of giant pandas

Abstract

Many studies have overestimated species’ range shifts under climate change because they treat climate as the only determinant while ignoring biotic factors. To assess the response of giant pandas to climate change, we incorporated spatial effects in modeling bamboo distributions, which in turn was incorporated to represent giant panda–bamboo biotic interactions in predicting giant panda distribution. Our study revealed potential tolerance of giant pandas to climate change. We found significant residual spatial correlation in the bamboo models. The biotic interactions with bamboo understories and anthropogenic activities had large effects on panda distribution, which lowered the relative importance of climatic variables. Our results are fundamentally different from previous studies that used climate-only and nonspatial approaches, which may have overestimated the effects of climate change on panda and lead to inappropriate conservation recommendations. We strongly advocate that giant panda conservation planning continues to focus on protecting bamboo forest and reducing anthropogenic interferences.