Long-Term Rainfall Information Forecast by Utilizing Constrained Amount of Observation through Artificial Neural Network Approach

Abstract

Estimating models are becoming increasingly crucial in highlighting the nonlinear connections of the massive level of rough information and chaotic components. The study demonstrates a modern approach utilizing a created artificial neural network (ANN) method that may be an alternative strategy to conventional factual procedures for advancing rainfall estimate execution. A case study was presented for Turkey's Düzce and Bolu neighboring territories located on the Black Sea's southern coast. This study's primary aim is to create an ANN model unique in the field to generate satisfactory results even with limited data. The proposed technique is being used to estimate rainfall and make predictions regarding future precipitation. Bolu daily average rainfall by month data and a limited number of Düzce rainfall data were used. Missing forecasts and potential rainfall projections will be examined in the fundamental research. This research further focuses on ANN computational concepts and develops a neural network for rainfall time series forecasting. The emphasis of this study was a feed-forward backpropagation network. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA) was implemented for training a two-layer feed-forward ANN for the missing rainfall data prediction part of this research. The inaccessible rainfall parameters for Düzce were determined for the years 1995 to 2009. From 2010 to 2020, a two-layer feed-forward ANN was trained using the gradient descent algorithm to forecast daily average rainfall data by month. The findings reported in this study guide researchers interested in implementing the ANN forecast model for an extended period of missing rainfall data.