Forecasting models for barley production in jord

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to construct forecasting models to project barley production, which is the main animal feed resource in Jordan. It is considered as the second main cultivated crop in the rainfed areas of Jordan, and the major concentrate feed for small ruminants all year around. Moreover, forecasting models are constructed for the main barley producing districts. Variables affecting barley production in Jordan were the accumulated monthly rainfall, monthly temperatures, and the average farm gate prices of barley in the previous season and the planted areas of barley. For each district and for the whole country, four multiple linear regression models were estimated. This estimation was based on the accumulated rainfall during the growing season up to January, February, March and April. The result of the analysis indicated that rainfall was the most limiting factor in increasing barley production. An additional one-millimeter precipitated in January will increase barley production by 156 tons. Also it shows that temperature in January has a positive effect on increasing barley production, but it has a negative effect during February, March and April. The barley pricing policy of government plays a significant role in increasing barley production.