Naturally occurring incidents as facsimiles for biochemical terrorist attacks

Abstract

Research on techniques for effective bioterrorism surveillance is limited by the availability of data from actual bioterrorism incidents. This research explores the potential contribution of naturally occurring incidents, such as Florida wildfires, as reasonable facsimiles for airborne bioterrorist attacks. Hospital discharge data on respiratory illnesses are analyzed to uncover patterns that might resemble the effects of an aerosolized biological or chemical attack. Previous research [3] is extended by (1) utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to introduce appropriate spatial data and (2) increasing the sophistication of the spatial analysis by applying the retrospective space-time permutation model available through SaTScan™. Initial results are promising and lead to a confirmation that Florida wildfires are potentially interesting surrogates for aerosolized biochemical terrorist attacks. Research implications are discussed in reference to the on-going development of effective bioterrorism surveillance systems. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.