Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art/Comments

Abstract

Judgment under uncertainty : heuristics and biases / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Belief in the law of small numbers / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Subjective probability : a judgment of representativeness / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky – On the psychology of prediction / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky – Studies of representativeness / Maya Bar-Hillel – Judgments of and by representativeness / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Popular induction : information is not necessarily informative / Richard E. Nisbett ... et al. – Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Shortcomings in the attribution process : on the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments / Lee Ross, Craig A. Anderson – Evidential impact of base rates / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Availability : a heuristic for judging frequency and probability / Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman – Egocentric biases in availability and attribution / Michael Ross, Fiore Sicoly – The availability bias in social perception and interaction / Shelley E. Taylor – The simulation heuristic / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky – Informal covariation assessment : data-based versus theory-based judgments / Dennis L. Jennings, Teresa M. Amabile, Lee Ross – The illusion of control / Ellen J. Langer – Test results are what you think they are / Loren J. Chapman, Jean Chapman – Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine : problems and opportunities / David M. Eddy – Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making / Hillel J. Einhorn – Overconfidence in case-study judgments / Stuart Oskamp – A progress report on the training of probability assessors / Marc Alpert, Howard Raiffa – Calibration of probabilities : the state of the art to 1980 / Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff, Lawrence D. Phillips – For those condemned to study the past : heuristics and biases in hindsight / Baruch Fischhoff – Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice / John Cohen, E.I. Chesnick, D. Haran – Conservatism in human information processing / Ward Edwards – The best-guess hypothesis in multistage inference / Charles F. Gettys, Clinton Kelly III, Cameron R. Peterson – Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory / Yaacov Trope – The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making / Robyn M. Dawes – The vitality of mythical numbers / Max Singer – Intuitive prediction : biases and corrective procedures / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky – Debiasing / Baruch Fischhoff – Improving inductive inference / Richard E. Nisbett ... et al. – Facts versus fears: understanding perceived risk / Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein – On the study of statistical intuitions / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky – Variants of uncertainty / Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky.