Using fuzzy PROMETHEE to select countries for developmental aid

Abstract

Wealthy nations continue to demonstrate their unwavering support to improving conditions and the general well-being of poor countries in spite of the recent economic crises. However, as developmental aid relatively shrinks, both Aid donors and recipient countries have shown keen interest in methodologies used in evaluating developmental assistance programs. Evaluation of aid programs is seen as a complex task mainly because of the several non-aid factors that tend to affect overall outcomes. Adding to the complexity are the subjective sets of criteria used in Aid evaluations programs. This paper proposes a two stage framework of fuzzy TOPSIS and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how aid-recipient countries can be evaluated to deepen transparency, fairness, value for money and sustainability of such aid programs. Using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set of subjective criteria for evaluating aid programs; a numerical example pre-defined by linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers is provided to evaluate aid programs. Fuzzy PROMETHEE is used in the first stage to evaluate and rank aid-recipients followed by a comparative analysis with Fuzzy VIKOR and Fuzzy TOPSIS to ascertain an accurateness of the method used. A sensitivity analysis is further added that anticipates possible influences from lobbyists and examines the effect of that bias in expert ratings on the evaluation process. The result shows a framework that can be employed in evaluating aid effectiveness of recipient-countries.