Proposition of a method to evaluate the maturity of scenario analysis inside organizations

Abstract

Scenario studies are developed by governments and organizations as a way to foresee possibilities, in order to develop specific strategies. Yet, there is little research in this field to evaluate the effectiveness of these studies; usually we can only find in the specialized literature attributes designed to evaluate the document of the scenario introduction. A possible approach to evaluate scenario quality would be the distinction between content, namely the scenario as a product itself, and the process that supports its elaboration. This research aimed to come up with a method to evaluate the maturity of scenario planning inside organizations. To do so, the major components and subcomponents of the scenario planning that enable us to evaluate them were identified; the metrics that indicate the stages of organizational maturity in scenarios were defined, and the application of the method in a selected set of Brazilian organizations was put into practice. As a possible alternative to ground the proposed method, the Project Management Maturity Model (PMMM) was used. A multimethodological, qualitative and interpretative study was undertaken, with multiples procedures used to collect and analyze data, including: literature review, interviews with experts on strategic scenarios and use of content analysis technique. As a result, we obtained a proposal for the evaluation of scenario planning in organizations that considered the following steps: preparation, development, document production and utilization. To determine the stage reached in scenarios, the following stages were considered: inactivity, initiation, standardization, management and optimization, culminating in the following maturity levels: very poor, poor, regular, good, great and excellent. The application of this method with thirteen Brazilian organizations identified regular maturity, unveiling the predominance of this subject in the public sector, with the highest levels observed in national defense organizations. The study offers contributions to the academic and professional fields. For the first it adds new knowledge represented by the proposal for the evaluation of the scenario planning, while for the second it provides a methodology that allows the execution of diagnosis of scenario-based processes to the organizations and consultancies, as well as the proposition of actions directed to improve objectively identified gaps.