Seniors Housing and Long-Term Care: The Impact of Ethnicity, Age and Location

Abstract

Estimates of supply and demand are fundamental to market and feasibility analysis yet the seniors housing industry lacks this data for different states and ethnic market segments. The existing national studies extrapolate current trends and consequently reflect the need to provide for the current population of users— overwhelmingly older white females. The ethnic mix of the population is changing and the change differs markedly by state. Nursing homes, care facilities and related health finance policies are regulated on a state basis. Therefore, understanding the need for senior housing at the state level by ethnic group is important to private sector developers and investors as well as public sector policy makers. This paper reviews earlier research and includes: 1) the use of long term care by ethnic group; 2) information on age and the use of long term care; 3) studies on the use long-term care by state. The research shows the presence of ethnic differences between Blacks and Whites, significant variation by state and regions in seniors’ use of nursing homes, board and care, and home health care. The paper proposes a new approach to the problem, and outlines a methodology using a new data source, the AHEAD data, to estimate the need for market driven seniors housing.