Power prediction in smart grids with evolutionary local kernel regression

Abstract

Electric grids are moving from a centralized single supply chain towards a decentralized bidirectional grid of suppliers and consumers in an uncertain and dynamic scenario. Soon, the growing smart meter infrastructure will allow the collection of terabytes of detailed data about the grid condition, e.g., the state of renewable electric energy producers or the power consumption of millions of private customers, in very short time steps. For reliable prediction strong and fast regression methods are necessary that are able to cope with these challenges. In this paper we introduce a novel regression technique, i.e., evolutionary local kernel regression, a kernel regression variant based on local Nadaraya-Watson estimators with independent bandwidths distributed in data space. The model is regularized with the CMA-ES, a stochastic non-convex optimization method. We experimentally analyze the load forecast behavior on real power consumption data. The proposed method is easily parallelizable, and therefore well appropriate for large-scale scenarios in smart grids. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.