Longitudinal Changes in Kidney Function Estimated from Cystatin C and Its Association with Mortality in Elderly Women

Abstract

Background/Aims: Prospective data on age-related changes in kidney function are required, especially since the current Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) definition has been suggested to classify a large number of elderly people with CKD. Objective: This study, a complement to our previous Cr-based study in the same cohort, is aimed at evaluating cystatin C (cysC)-based changes in kidney function during aging in older women and analyzing the association between CKD and mortality through 10 years of follow-up. Methods: cysC was available in 981 women from the Osteoporosis Prospective Risk Assessment (OPRA) cohort, all aged 75 years on entry. Reinvestigations were made after 5 (n = 685) and 10 years (n = 365). Kidney function was estimated (estimated glomerular filtration rate [EGFR]) using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration cysC and Caucasian, Asian, Pediatric, and Adult cysC equations and the change in function calculated. Women were staged equivalent to CKD stage 1, 2, 3a, or 3b-5 according to the KDIGO classification. Mortality risk was estimated for 5-year or 10-year follow-up time using Cox proportional hazard analyses (reference category, CKD stages 1 and 2). Results: Mortality risk for women with the worst kidney function (CKD stages 3b-5) increased during both 5-year follow-up times compared to that for women in stages 1 and 2 (age 75-80 years: adjusted Hazard Ratio [HRadj] 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-6.5; age 80-85 years: HRadj 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.7). In contrast, women in stage 3a had increased risk only in the first 5-year follow-up (HRadj 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.0, age 75-80 years). Change in kidney function amounted to a loss of 1.9 (±1.4) mL/min/1.73 m2 per year during the 10-year follow-up, and at age 85 years, 4 of every 5 women had an EGFR equivalent to CKD. Conclusion: In the future, an age-adapted definition of CKD, lowering the threshold for CKD in the elderly, may be beneficial to avoid overdiagnosis of CKD.