Uncertainty

Abstract

To provide fire protection engineering decisions that are meaningful and defendable, the practitioner must understand and be able to characterize the impact of uncertainty on fire safety engineering calculations. This requirement is true for all fire safety engineering calculations, whether conducted to meet a performance-based code, to aid in the establishment of a prescriptive requirement; to compare a performance option to its prescriptive counterpart; or as part of a fire risk analysis used in managing a complex facility, such as a nuclear power plant. At present, however, there is no clear guidance for the treatment of uncertainty in the use of fire safety engineering calculations to support decision making. Development of such guidance will assist engineers and architects in the design process; assist code officials by increasing confidence in the acceptance of a performance calculation; aid researchers in prioritizing enhancements to both the physics and structure of fire models; and aid policy makers by incorporating scientific knowledge and technical predictive abilities in policy decisions. It is essential for the application of risk analysis in the regulation and management of complex facilities.