Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Two vaccines against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in young children, Rotarix and RotaTeq, have been available in Europe since 2006. Vaccination against rotaviruses significantly reduces the burden of RVGE, but it is also associated with a very small increased risk of intussusception. In a benefit–risk analysis, the prevented RVGE burden is weighed against the possible excess of intussusception. Purpose: The aim was to compare the estimated benefits and risks of Rotarix vaccination in France. Methods: We estimated the benefits (vaccine-preventable RVGE hospitalizations and deaths) and risks (vaccine-caused intussusception hospitalizations and deaths) following two doses of Rotarix in a birth cohort of 791,183 followed for 3–5 years in France. We used data from peer-reviewed clinical and epidemiological studies or publications, and government statistics. Results: Within the total number of French children below 5 years of age, we estimate vaccination could prevent a median 11,132 [95% credible interval (CI) 7842–14,408] RVGE hospitalizations and 7.43 (95% CI 3.27–14.68) RVGE deaths. At the same time, vaccination could cause an average of 6.86 (95% CI 2.25–38.37) intussusception hospitalizations and 0.0099 (95% CI 0.0024–0.060) intussusception deaths in the entire French birth cohort of infants below 1 year of age. Therefore, for every intussusception hospitalization and every intussusception death caused by vaccination, 1624 (95% CI 240–5243) RVGE hospitalizations and 743 (95% CI 93–3723) RVGE deaths are prevented, respectively, by vaccination. Conclusions: The vaccine-prevented RVGE hospitalizations and deaths (benefit) greatly outweigh the excess potentially vaccination-related cases of intussusception (risk), indicating a favorable benefit–risk balance for Rotarix in France.