Complex species distribution models of Goldcrests and Firecrests densities in Poland: are remote sensing-based predictors sufficient?

Abstract

Abstract: Species distribution models should identify ecological requirements of species and predict their spatial density. However, data from remote sensing sources are often used alone as predictors in modelling distributions. Such data will only produce accurate models if features that are distinguishable by remote sensing are a good match to the environmental traits that delineate habitat requirements. Both the Goldcrest Regulus regulus and the Firecrest Regulus ignicapilla respond to complex features of habitats that are not described by simple remote sensing data. We tested the usefulness of remote sensing data as a predictor for two Regulus species according to data from 970 study plots sized 1 × 1 km. Predictors were aggregated using the PCAs and related to the Hayne estimator of species density using GAMs. The models based on both remote sensing data and detailed environmental data proved to be better than the model based only on remote sensing data and/or detailed forest structure data. The Goldcrest reached the highest density in areas with a high share of old spruce-dominated forests with a substantial share of the fir, avoiding the pine, and it preferred forests with a low number of tree species. In turn, the Firecrest favoured old forests, dominated by the spruce and the beech, with an admixture of single old fir and larch trees, avoiding the pine, and preferring forests with a high number of tree species. We suggest using not only free data sources, but also more detailed data containing thorough information on forest inventory derived from ground measurements.