Interpretable Machine Learning to Forecast SEP Events for Solar Cycle 23

Abstract

We use machine learning methods to predict whether an active region (AR) which produces flares will lead to a solar energetic particle (SEP) event using Space-Weather Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Active Region Patches (SMARPs). This new data product is derived from maps of the solar surface magnetic field taken by the MDI aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We survey the SMARP active regions associated with flares that appear on the solar disk between 5 June 1996 and 14 August 2010, label those that produced SEPs as positive and the rest as negative. The AR SMARP features that correspond to each flare are used to train two different types of machine learning methods, the support vector machines (SVMs) and the regression models. The results show that the SMARP data can predict whether a flare will lead to an SEP with accuracy (ACC) ≤0.72 ± 0.12 while allowing for a competitive leading time of 55.3 ± 28.6 min for forecasting the SEP events.