Rational and Empirical Cultures of Prediction

Abstract

Mathematics plays a self-evidently important role in making scientific predictions. The rise of science as an epistemically superior mode of knowledge production over the past four centuries has depended on making accurate predictions; the apparent certainty of scientific knowledge has often been borne out by accurate predictions. Mathematics has been unarguably ‘effective’ in this sense. The question I want to explore here is how predictions have improved, that is how mathematics has become more effective, if effectiveness is measured in terms of producing accurate predictions.