A system dynamics approach to simulate the restoration plans for Urmia Lake, Iran

Abstract

Increasing water demand is threatening many hydro-environmental systems, particularly lakes in arid regions. The goal of this research is to assess restoration plans for a drying saline lake, Urmia Lake, in Iran. In order to include interactions of different lake sub-systems, effectiveness of the plans, as a challenging question for decision makers, is studied by a system dynamics model. The plans that are studied and modeled are increasing irrigation efficiency, decreasing irrigated land area, cloud seeding, inter-basin water transfer projects, and using refined wastewater. Here, it is found that increasing irrigation efficiency by 4% annually and controlling irrigated lands would have around 60% effect in revitalizing the lake to its ecological level, among those considered restoration plans. By linking potential policies to their outcomes, this modeling effort is a step toward supporting the consensus to restore the lake.