Trends and persistence of dry–wet conditions in northeast brazil

Abstract

We analyze trend and persistence in Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series derived from monthly rainfall data at 133 gauging stations in Pernambuco state, Brazil, using a suite of complementary methods to address the spatially explicit tendencies, and persistence. SPI was calculated for 1‐, 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month time scales from 1950 to 2012. We use Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope to determine sign and magnitude of the trend, and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to quantify long‐term correlations. For all time scales significant negative trends are obtained in the Sertão (deep inland) region, while significant positive trends are found in the Agreste (intermediate inland), and Zona da Mata (coastal) regions. The values of DFA exponents show different scaling behavior for different time scales. For short‐term conditions described by SPI‐1 the DFA exponent is close to 0.5 indicating weak persistency and low predictability, while for medium‐term conditions (SPI‐3 and SPI‐6) DFA exponents are greater than 0.5 and increase with time scale indicating stronger persistency and higher predictability. For SPI‐12 that describes long-term precipitation patterns, the values of DFA exponents for inland regions are around 1, indicating strong persistency, while in the shoreline the value of the DFA exponent is between 1.0 and 1.5, indicating anti‐persistent fractional Brownian motion. These results should be useful for agricultural planning and water resource management in the region.