The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Forecasting Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index

Abstract

This study aims to obtain the Composite Stock Price Index's closing price forecast from January to October 2021. This research method uses the single exponential smoothing method. The sample used in this study is the composite stock price index at the closing price for all sectors and all companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on a week scale from October 2015 to October 2020. The forecasting results show that the Composite Stock Price Index will have a value expected to return to normal. The period before the Covid-19 pandemic. This study provides forecasting results based only on the combined stock price index data for five periods with Microsoft Excel calculations using predetermined formulas. Forecasting results show that in 2021 the stock price index will reach normal conditions like it was before the Covid-19 pandemic. Investors can use forecasting information on this composite stock index to determine the action of selling or buying shares because the composite price index reflects the performance conditions of all companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and shows the country's economic needs. Suggestions for further research are to be able to predict the combined price index of each sector.