Wind speed for load forecasting models

Abstract

Temperature and its variants, such as polynomials and lags, have been the most frequently-used weather variables in load forecasting models. Some of the well-known secondary driving factors of electricity demand include wind speed and cloud cover. Due to the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, the net load is more and more affected by these non-temperature weather factors. This paper fills a gap and need in the load forecasting literature by presenting a formal study on the role of wind variables in load forecasting models. We propose a systematic approach to include wind variables in a regression analysis framework. In addition to the Wind Chill Index (WCI), which is a predefined function of wind speed and temperature, we also investigate other combinations of wind speed and temperature variables. The case study is conducted for the eight load zones and the total load of ISO New England. The proposed models with the recommended wind speed variables outperform Tao's Vanilla Benchmark model and three recency effect models on four forecast horizons, namely, day-ahead, week-ahead, month-ahead, and year-ahead. They also outperform two WCI-based models for most cases.