Testing the intermediate disturbance hypothesis: When will there be two peaks of diversity?

Abstract

Succession after disturbances generates a mosaic of patches in different successional stages. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis predicts that intermediate disturbances lead to the highest diversity of these stages on a regional scale resulting in a hump-shaped diversity-disturbance curve. We tested this prediction using field data of forest succession and hypothetical succession scenarios in combination with analytical and simulation models. According to our study the main factors shaping the diversity-disturbance curve and the position of the diversity maximum were the transition times between the successional stages, the transition type, neighbourhood effects and the choice of diversity measure. Although many scenarios confirmed the intermediate disturbance hypothesis we found that deviations in the form of two diversity maximums were possible. Such bimodal diversity-disturbance curves occurred when early and late successional stages were separated by one or more long-lived (compared to the early stages) intermediate successional stages. Although the field data which met these conditions among all those tested were rare (one of six), the consequences of detecting two peaks are fundamental. The impact of disturbances on biodiversity can be complex and deviate from a hump-shaped curve.