MODELING OF FINANCIAL RESULTS OF SUBJECTS OF THE INNOVATION PROCESS IN THE REGION

Abstract

The article develops and substantiates a methodological approach to modeling the results of innovative development of subjects of the regional business environment. The basic values of financial forecasting were indicators of the innovative potential of the business entity and indicators of the innovative attractiveness of the region. The system of indicators of innovation attractiveness of the region includes indicators of innovation activity of the region, social and economic indicators of regional development, indicators of innovative cooperation of the region, and indicators of international integration of the region. To assess the innovation potential of a business entity, such four levels of diagnostics are defined as: the potential of tangible assets; the potential of tangible assets in the form of working capital; the indicator of intellectual potential; the level of use of innovative potential. To substantiate the methodology for analyzing the innovative attractiveness of the region, software was developed in the database management system MS Access environment. Trends were identified by autocorrelation analysis and the foster-Stewart method, and the pair correlation approach was used with the sequential search of all parameters to find the relationship between the parameters. To achieve this goal, we will use the Pearson coefficient; various types of one-dimensional regression are used to increase the accuracy of the model. The forecast values calculated on the basis of modeling justified the existence of a close relationship between the expected economic results of the development of innovative cooperation in the region and the indicators of activation of entrepreneurial initiative. The results of modeling can be used as a basis for forming the policy of innovative development of the region. The results of modeling as well can be used in choosing strategic alternatives for innovative development of business entities.