Predicting the development trend of the second wave of COVID-19 in five European countries

Abstract

The second wave of COVID-19 has caused a dramatic increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths globally. An accurate prediction of its development trend is significant. We predicted the development trend of the second wave of COVID-19 in five European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. We first built models to predict daily numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths based on the data of the first wave of COVID-19 in these countries. Based on these models, we built new models to predict the development trend of the second wave of COVID-19. We predicted that the second wave of COVID-19 would have peaked around on November 16, 2020, January 10, 2021, December 1, 2020, March 1, 2021, and January 10, 2021, in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK, respectively. It will be basically under control on April 26, 2021, September 20, 2021, August 1, 2021, September 15, 2021, and August 10, 2021, in these countries, respectively. Their total number of COVID-19 cases will reach around 4,745,000, 7,890,000, 6,852,000, 8,071,000, and 10,198,000, respectively, and total number of COVID-19 deaths will be around 262,000, 262,000, 231,000, 253,000, and 350,000 during the second wave of COVID-19. The COVID-19 mortality rate in the second wave of COVID-19 is predicted to be about 3.4%, 3.5%, 3.4%, 3.4%, and 3.1% in France, Spain, Germany, France, and the UK. The second wave of COVID-19 is expected to cause many more cases and deaths, last for a much longer time, and have a lower COVID-19 mortality rate than the first wave.