A Simulation Framework Dedicated to Characterizing Risks and Cascading Effects in Collaborative Networks

Abstract

Cascading effects describe risk interdependencies, whereby the occurrence of one risk may trigger one or more risks with potential propagation chains in complex systems. In this study, on the basis of a formalized model namely danger-risk-consequence chain, a generic simulation framework is proposed to characterize risk causal processes and cascading effects within collaborative networks. Risk-related components and the causal relationships between them are visualized by abstractly representing the instantaneous state of the considered collaborative network as a directed graph. Furthermore, the simulation of trajectories of the state evolution over time is realized by knowledge-driven automatic inference of causal chains and propagation chains, thus enabling the tracing of cascading effects within complex systems. The presented simulation framework provides a solid foundation for a systemic understanding of risks, which implies an innovative tool that helps decision-makers to identify, prevent and mitigate cascading effects within collaborative networks (e.g., supply chains).